Aliso Viejo, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

016
FXUS66 KSGX 012040
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
140 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure to the south will bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Cooler weather
with highs near normal will occur through much of the upcoming
week. By Monday, quieter weather with drier conditions will
continue with lingering humidity. A small chance of showers and
storms is in the forecast by Tuesday across the mountains and
deserts as an area low pressure enters the region. This weather
system will start a troughing pattern, keeping us seasonal
through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

An area of low pressure to our south continues to move over
northern Baja. Afternoon satellite picture also shows cumulus
bubble up across parts of the southern mountain chain. Moisture
and instability are readily available, but cloud cover from this
morning may inhibit greater storm development. Highest
probabilities for rain continue to be across the mountains and
lower deserts, with some eastern valleys possibly seeing some
light precipitation later this afternoon. Most spots that see
thunderstorms will see hourly rates near one quarter of an inch or
less, some locally higher. The low will continue to move
northeast, where light showers wrapping around the system will
move over the area overnight. Conditions slowly dry overnight but
humidity will remain.

Another weak area of low pressure will move off the coast from
the north by Monday. PWAT values lower as our system from today
departs, but humidity will stick around as we dry things out.
High temperatures will be similar in most places on Monday, but a
few degrees cooler closer to the coast and valleys. The low
pressure system moves inland over our region by Tuesday, which
will pull in tropical moisture and increased instability once
again with ensemble models showing values near 500-700 J/kg. NBM
chances near 15-25% across the mountains and deserts remain
sufficient for this forecast. Forecast timing on this is moderate
with latest thinking as notable chances from Tuesday morning
through Tuesday night.

The weak weather system will depart late Tuesday, as a troughing
pattern over area remains from Wednesday through later in the
week. This pattern will keep us dry with highs near seasonal
averages. Models depict our region between two large areas of high
pressure, one over the Pacific and the other over Mexico. Ensemble
model guidance is leaning toward the area of high pressure over
Mexico expanding closer to our region, which will bring slightly
warmer weather by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
012000Z...Coasts/Valleys...A few light showers are moving across
Southern California. Prevailing SCT-BKN high clouds 10,000-20,000ft
MSL through today. Iso TSRA are possible for the far eastern valleys
and foothills through 02Z Monday, with -SHRA or VCSH possible
through 09Z. Reduced VIS in any SHRA/TSRA with gusty and erratic
winds. More uniform low clouds will move 15-20 miles inland after
06Z Mon, based 800-1200ft MSL, clearing by 16-17Z Monday.

Deserts/Mountains...SCT-BKN high clouds at 10,000-20,000ft MSL
prevail today. Iso-Sct TSRA possible this afternoon the greatest
coverage over the mountains. Brief outflow gusts over 25-40kts
possible with any developing SHRA or TSRA. Near zero VIS possible in
any storm with heavy rain, along with erratic and gusty winds. TSRA
chances diminish after 03Z Monday, with lingering showers tapering
off by 12Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Chance of showers (20-35%) today across the coastal waters, with a
low chance for thunderstorms around 5% this afternoon. Otherwise, no
additional hazardous marine conditions are expected through
Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A long period south swell builds into the region today, leading to
elevated surf for south and southwest facing beaches of 4 to 6 feet
with sets to 7 or 8 feet possible. This will result in higher rip
current risk and locally hazardous swimming conditions. Surf peaks
Monday and gradually diminishes Tuesday through Wednesday. A Beach
Hazard Statement is in effect and contains more information.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber